The worst case scenario of a US-China trade war could be a new bear market: Data
9/16/2018, 7:16:18 PMRunning a series of different scenarios in the U.S.-China conflict, experts at FactSet have come up with a worst-case scenario, one in which the U.S., along with a few others, would see a bear market emerge. ✔ Trade war stress test for stocks Click to edit Optimistic Base case Conservative All countries -8.34 -12.11 -16.97 5 Best Japan 4.44 6.61 7.46 Switzerland -2.46 -2.27 -5.23 Denmark -3.21 -2.73 -6.27 Portugal -3.49 -3 -6.12 Netherlands -3.68 -3.29 -7.04 5 Worst Hong Kong -9.28 -15.7 -21.93 UK -9.57 -12.84 -19.45 U.S. -10.83 -16.45 -21.88 Canada -10.97 -15.25 -21.94 Israel -13.44 -19.05 -27.01 Source: FactSet In the event of the trade war continuing, investors fleeing from stocks would be looking for safe havens like bonds
Crunch time: could Trump and China test investor faith in Apple
9/16/2018, 2:07:29 PMThe largest Australian shareholder in Apple remains bullish on the world's most valuable company - but is concerned it could be the victim of a trade war between the US and China. ✔ The company seems to be betting they will do so again ✔ But it seems that macro factors, such as the wildcard of a trade war, rather than anything to do with its products or services, are the biggest risk facing the company ✔ [But] Apple generates around 20 per cent of its revenue from China and is a very prominent ‘American’ brand, leaving it exposed to retaliatory actions or a Chinese consumer backlash
Trump expected to announce more China tech tariffs within days
9/16/2018, 4:40:07 PMTech companies may face more headaches with reports of more US tariffs on China coming as soon as September 17th. ✔ Both Reuters and the Wall Street Journal have learned that the Trump administration is likely to formally announce its latest tariffs on Chinese goods within the next few days (possibly as soon as September 17th) ✔ Trump has called on companies to produce more of their goods inside the US as a response to criticisms ✔ In many cases, though, it's not as simple as opening a new factory
Can macro policy easing still rescue China?
9/16/2018, 4:09:22 PMundefined ✔ Since the peak in late January, Chinese asset prices have strongly underperformed their global counterparts ✔ American concerns about Chinese economic policy are not confined solely to the Trump administration, and these concerns encompass industrial strategy as well as unfair practices relating to foreign trade
No deals ‘at gunpoint’: China mulls dropping trade talks, slapping US firms with sanctions – report
9/16/2018, 7:37:59 PMBeijing reportedly eyes rejecting Washington’s offer of new trade talks amid media buzz on President Donald Trump’s alleged go-ahead for sweeping tariffs. China could instead stop supplying some vital materials to US firms. ✔ The restrictions could particularly hit Apple Inc., which has its iPhones being assembled in China ✔ The US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin sent an invitation to China’s Vice Prime Minister Liu He in an attempt to revive the talks early last week but the fate of the potential negotiations has been now left in a limbo due to Washington’s moves
China is reshaping the international order
9/16/2018, 1:05:00 PMundefined ✔ This is no different to the work long done by the UK’s British Council or France’s Alliance Française ✔ Perhaps the most significant global change is the dramatic decline in violence ✔ But, if the US should find the changes intolerable, and responds accordingly, these could also be very dangerous times
US dollar and oil chasing $80 are in focus for investors this week
9/16/2018, 9:17:39 AMundefined ✔ While the fundamentals of the market increasingly point to higher prices in the short term, with the International Energy Agency this week warning of a possible supply crunch once the US reimposes sanctions against Iran’s oil industry in November, Brent crude continues to struggle to break out of its well-defined $70-$80 a barrel trading range
It’s Not All Amazon. Small Stocks Are Powering the Market Higher
9/16/2018, 12:12:43 PMTechnology giants get most of the credit for driving this year’s stock-market gains, but the quiet strength of smaller companies is a reason to keep betting on U.S. stocks. ✔ A worker at an Amazon fulfillment center in Italy ✔ Another: Many investors, worried about trade disputes, are betting on companies with a greater share of domestic earnings ✔ Those firms are typically smaller than their larger, multinational peers and are receiving more benefits from the corporate tax cut
US sanctions are China's big concern right now
9/16/2018, 5:32:16 PMIn her presidential weekly briefing, Samantha Vinograd writes that the Trump administration's announcement that it is considering sanctions against China over its mistreatment of Muslims will lead Beijing to stoke security concerns. ✔ Kim probably knows -- because it's clearly stated online, on the United State Forces Korea website -- that the mission of US Forces-Korea (USF-K) is not limited to just maintaining the Korean War armistice ✔ Spain will now proceed with selling 400 laser-guided missiles to Yemen
Cultural divide: The nation is changing, but a small Iowa town refuses to live without its movie theater
9/16/2018, 11:13:46 AMThe movie theater in Webster City is a defiant piece of America that has sustained this Iowa town through good times and bad. In the first of a series of occasional stories we journey across America in search of cultural touchstones reflecting our tumultuous political times. ✔ Conversations over coffee at Whoop-Ti-Doos meandered from immigration passions around the issue were roused across the state recently when a Mexican immigrant who entered the country illegally was arrested in the slaying of a white University of Iowa student to any number of topics
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