A trade war with China could end in stalemate
9/23/2018, 7:01:08 PMTrade wars are not easy to win — especially against a juggernaut like China — and the escalating commercial conflict with Beijing could easily end in a stalemate. The outcome will depend on how much support President Trump gets from Democrats in Congress — especially if they win control of both houses — and the actions of American allies in Europe and Asia. ✔ Democrats on the Hill and leaders in Europe and Japan recognize the potential for these technologies to drive economic growth, create and destroy millions of jobs, alter espionage and warfare, and change relationships between citizens and governments
'President's folly': China reaches into US heartland in trade war
9/23/2018, 10:28:49 PMChina reached into the US heartland in its escalating trade war over President Donald Trump's tariffs. ✔ On Saturday China called off planned trade talks with US officials, and there's a growing consensus in Beijing that substantive talks will be possible with the Trump administration only after the US midterm elections in November, according to people familiar with the matter
Trump's trade war with China is about to get a whole lot bigger
9/23/2018, 5:35:04 PMThe trade fight between the United States and China is set to intensify Monday when the two economic superpowers hit each other with their biggest round of tariffs yet. ✔ But analysts say Beijing is becoming more suspicious about US intentions ✔ China is growing concerned that the US motivation is now trying to keep China down and contain it, Timothy Stratford, a managing partner at law firm Covington & Burling in Beijing, said last week ✔ Nanlin Fang and Donna Borak contributed to this report
‘I’m not the president of the globe’: Trump goes it alone as he faces world leaders amid trade war against China
9/23/2018, 11:09:48 PMThe president plans to use a United Nations forum to demand other nations respect American “sovereignty” at a time of uncertainty over U.S. strategy. ✔ By David Nakamura David Nakamura Reporter covering the White House Email Bio Follow September 23 at 6:44 PM NEW YORK As China’s rapid rise presented a challenge to the United States, political leaders in Washington were confident that the American model for prosperity would triumph over the path pursued by their communist rival ✔ In doing so, Xi has sought to elbow the United States and other global powers out of what Beijing considers China’s sovereign claims, which its leaders call core interests
China raises trade tensions by rejecting US call for talks
9/23/2018, 5:57:47 PMundefined ✔ President Donald Trump has promised to respond to any such retaliation by Beijing with further tariffs on all Chinese exports to the US, which last year totalled $505bn ✔ The Chinese government sees Mr Trump’s escalation on the trade front as part of a larger effort to contain China’s economic and military development a conviction that was further solidified by the military sanctions imposed last week
Asian firms shuffle production around the region as China tariffs hit
9/23/2018, 10:21:56 PMA growing number of Asian manufacturers of products ranging from memory chips to machines tools are moving to shift production from China to other factories in the region in the wake of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs on Chinese imports. Companies including SK Hynix of South Korea and Mitsubishi Electric,… ✔ Toshiba Machine Co says it plans to shift production of U.S.-bound plastic moulding machines from China to Japan or Thailand in October ✔ The EEC last month took some 800 representatives of Chinese companies on a tour around the eastern industrial heartland, and the country's Board of Investment has done seven roadshows in China this year to woo investors
8@eight: ASX set to start week in red
9/23/2018, 10:15:31 PMWhat happened overnight and what's ahead for the ASX. ✔ The commentary opens-up a possible push higher in oil prices above $US80 per barrel (in Brent Crude terms) – a mark that has been consistently threatened in the past month ✔ Market watch: SPI futures down 23 points or 0.4% to 6169 at 8am Saturday AEST AUD flat at 72.89 US cents On Wall St: Dow +0.3% S&P 500 flat Nasdaq -0.5% In New York, BHP +2% Rio +0.8% Atlassian -0.7% In Europe: Stoxx 50 +0.8% FTSE +1.7% CAC +0.8% DAX +0.9% Spot gold -0.6% to $US1200.04 an ounce Brent crude +0.1% to $US78.76 a barrel US oil +0.6% to $US70.76 a barrel Iron ore -0.1% to $US69.13 a tonne Dalian iron ore -0.4% to 501 yuan LME aluminium +2.4% to $US2091 a tonne LME copper +4.6% to $US6363 a tonne 2-year yield: US 2.80% Australia 2.09% 5-year yield: US 2.95% Australia 2.26% 10-year yield: US 3.06% Australia 2.70% Germany 0.46% US-Australia 10-year yield gap as of 7am Saturday AEST: 36 basis points This column was produced in commercial partnership between Fairfax Media and IG
Markets should brace for a lengthy convalescence, BIS warns
9/23/2018, 4:37:53 PMFinancial markets need to gird for a lengthy spell of turbulence as more of the ... ✔ Credit spreads for riskier ‘high-yield’ companies have been hovering around levels that prevailed just before the 2007-08 global financial crisis (GFC) ✔ But relative to total capital, the two banking systems had similar exposures at 2.3 percent and 2.4 percent respectively ✔ For full BIS report click here Our Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles
Trump's overconfidence may lead to 'major miscalculation', fears JPMorgan
9/23/2018, 9:07:55 PMJPMorgan strategists are starting to make forecast and strategy changes around the potential overconfidence will led to a big mistake from Trump. ✔ Loading The strategists said that's part of the reason the firm has boosted oil-price forecasts, with a spike in Brent to $US90 a barrel likely on revised estimates of how much crude demand from Iran might drop as countries respect the US sanctions due to begin in November ✔ JPMorgan also is starting to factor into its strategy a growing potential for a Phase III of the US-China trade war next year affecting all Chinese imports
Australia market set for positive open following record highs on Wall Street
9/23/2018, 11:56:18 PMTariffs between the U.S. and China were set to go into effect at 12.01 p.m. HK/SIN on Monday. ✔ The markets in Japan, South Korea and China were closed for public holidays ✔ The U.S.-China trade war remains in focus Monday, with tariffs from both parties due to go into effect at 12.01 p.m. HK/SIN ✔ Here's a look at the trading day ahead: Singapore Inflation data for August
US trade hawks seize their chance to reset China relations
9/23/2018, 6:08:24 PMundefined ✔ Hawks can cite Chinese intellectual property theft, human rights violations, and aggression in the South China Seas as proof of their position ✔ What does it mean for a company like, for example, Google to launch a censored search engine in China, while its parent company, Alphabet, refuses to send its chief executive, Larry Page, to testify in the Senate on Russian meddling in US tech platforms
JPMorgan Is Strategizing in Case of 'a Major Miscalculation From Sanctions' by Trump
9/23/2018, 9:37:57 PMConcerns for the markets and economy include “second-round” effects from trade battles. ✔ The $179 refers to average Wall Street estimates for the S&P 500 ✔ Even with a forward multiple of 17, an EPS downgrade this large would end the U.S. stock rally unless some other offset materialized ✔ Across research teams, conviction is higher around the latter than the former
Abe must be frank with his pal Trump
9/23/2018, 10:16:04 PMWithout forthright talk, Shinzo-Donald bromance risks turning into a big mistake ✔ That is backfiring spectacularly and warrants a major rethink ✔ Sure, the BOJ could toss additional stimulus at the economy ✔ It is when the tide goes out, as Warren Buffett famously said, that we see who has been swimming naked ✔ Try 3 months for $9 Offer ends September 30th
As aid checks go out, farmers worry bailout won’t be enough
9/23/2018, 4:59:13 PM✔ The $12B in farm aid is coming from tax revenues: Gasparino FBN's Charlie Gasparino on and the political fallout from President Trump's former personal attorney Michael Cohen's tape recording of their conversation ✔ But none came this year, Goule said, as Trump escalated his threatening rhetoric on trade with Beijing
Donald Trump's China tariffs will tax Americans
9/23/2018, 9:51:04 PMAn additional $200 billion of Chinese goods are set to get hit with import taxes. Shoppers, get ready to pay more: Our view ✔ A multimillionaire buying a toy as a Christmas gift pays the same amount extra as someone of more modest means making the same purchase ✔ And the president is said to be considering a tariff on imported cars because his levies on imported steel and aluminum have made domestic automakers less competitive ✔ If you can't see this reader poll, please refresh your page
Risk is rising that all imports from China could be hit with new US tariffs, Goldman Sachs says
9/23/2018, 7:09:14 PMWith the world's two largest economies opening a new front this week in their multibillion dollar trade battle, the risk has risen sharply that the U.S. will eventually slap tariffs on all imports from China, Goldman Sachs said on Sunday. ✔ Yuri Gripas | Reuters President Donald Trump delivers remarks before signing an executive order on strengthening retirement security in America at Harris Conference Center in Charlotte, NC, August 31, 2018 ✔ According to free trade theory, countries will produce more of, and consume less of, a good for which they have a comparative advantage
‘Grain Is our Oil’: Russia Is Besting the U.S. as a Wheat Powerhouse
9/23/2018, 4:28:47 PMRussian exports are booming despite a crushing price slump, as the country’s farmers finally emerge from decades of Soviet neglect. They’re positioned to extend their gains at the expense of American outfits, who are threatened by tariffs. ✔ A farmworker covered harvested wheat outside Belgorod, Russia, in July ✔ At first, he pooled land with relatives and used whatever equipment he could lay his hands on ✔ Giant agroholdings, conglomerates often created by wealthy tycoons or people close to top federal and regional government officials, have built up spreads that dwarf Western farms ✔ The poor villages here depend on the generosity of wealthier farmers
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